Clippers’ X-factor vs. Mavericks in 2024 NBA Playoffs, and it’s not Russell Westbrook

It’s worth mentioning that every discussion surrounding the Clippers’ looming first-round matchup against the Mavericks will be rendered moot in the event that Kawhi Leonard is unable to play.

With Leonard healthy, the Clippers will already find the Mavs matchup difficult enough as it is. Without him, it’ll be near impossible for LA to advance barring a throwback performance from James Harden and an avoidance of past playoff woes from Paul George, and even then, the odds will be heavily in Luka Doncic and company’s favor. After all, the Clippers, they needed every bit of Leonard’s contributions to scrape by in a seven-game series in 2021.

Nonetheless, every fan in the world (except for, perhaps, Mavericks fans) will be hoping that Kawhi Leonard is healthy. A level playing field always brings out the most exciting brand of hoops. But when has the playing field ever been level for the Clippers ever since they blew a golden opportunity in 2020?

In 2021, Kawhi Leonard had to put up 32.1 points, 7.9 rebounds and 4.6 assists just to scrape by a worse Mavericks team. Now, the cause-and-effect relationship between the workload Leonard had to take on in the first round and his eventual ACL injury is iffy at best, but one would think that the additional wear and tear caused by his immense, high-leverage offensive responsibility contributed to his second-round injury that doomed the Clippers’ championship dreams in 2021.

And then last year, Leonard, after putting up two monster games against the Phoenix Suns, suffered a torn meniscus, making it a breeze for the Suns to get past the Clippers. Luck has never quite been on LA’s side.

Now, if Leonard suits up in Game 1, 21 days would have passed since his last game. The hope now is that not only is the Klaw healthy, but that he’s not too rusty as well. But if Leonard is in tip-top condition, then the Clippers fanbase, despite being conditioned to expect the worst, once again could have strong reason to hope for the best.

Secondary X-factor: Terance Mann

Barring any unforeseen changes, the Clippers will be starting James Harden, Paul George, Terance Mann, and Ivica Zubac from the get-go. That unit is the Clippers’ most-played this past season (at 593 minutes), and that lineup outscored opponents by 10.0 — a stellar net rating.

But in the postseason, defenses will load up on the Harden-Zubac pick-and-roll that has proven to be the Clippers’ bread and butter. George will see blitzes as the pick-and-roll ballhandler, and Leonard will draw two defenders when he isolates in the high post. That leaves Mann as the ultimate play connector, someone expected to make open shots, cut for open shots in the paint, and make plays on the short roll.

If Mann cannot hold his own on the offensive end, then it only makes sense for the Clippers to put in either Russell Westbrook or Norman Powell to fill the bulk of the minutes alongside the core four instead. That, however, presents a different set of problems for LA to deal with.

For starters, Westbrook, despite being perhaps the best energy guy off the bench and a proven performer when he gets minutes, severely hampers the Clippers’ spacing. He has improved his work off the ball, but defenses still sag off him, and his fit alongside James Harden is iffy at best as both need the ball in their hands to succeed. With Westbrook in place of Mann alongside the Clippers’ core four, LA was outscored by 26.7 points per 100 possessions in the 71 minutes that unit played on the court.

It’s tempting for some to think how much better it would be for the Clippers if Russell Westbrook took on the responsibility of defending Kyrie Irving. Westbrook showed last year how capable he is of slowing down some of the best perimeter scorers in the league, but is it worth taking the ball out of Harden’s (and by extension, George and Leonard’s) hands, as well as to cramp the team’s spacing, just to get that defense in the lineup?

Norman Powell is a dynamic offensive player who takes the Clippers up a level (+18.4 net rating alongside Harden, George, Leonard, and Zubac), but that is more of a crunch-time setup for LA. Mann is a more active presence on the glass, a must for the Clippers to avoid being outrebounded, and his point of attack defense affords Kawhi Leonard and Paul George some leeway, saving them from the Luka Doncic matchup until the moment when it’s truly necessary.

Terance Mann has been much-better on the offensive end as of late. But Mann will have to play the Nicolas Batum role the Clippers needed to get past the Mavericks in 2021 to a T — timely shot-making, solid point of attack defense, and pinpoint help — so LA could complete the trifecta of first-round victories over Dallas.